Was kommt nach dem Kurseinbruch?
Am Dienstag gab es – wie jedem Leser hier bekannt sein dürfte – ziemlich starke Kursrückgänge an den Weltbörsen. Auf solche Ereignisse stürzen sich natürlich die Medien. Da ist dann schnell vom steilsten Absturz nach dem 17. September 2001 die Rede. Und natürlich darf der Zusatz nicht fehlen, dass das der “Tag war, als der Handel nach den Terrorangriffen in den USA wieder aufgenommen wurde”.
Was nicht explizit betont wird, ist, dass diese Aussage nur stimmt, wenn man den Punktverlust betrachtet. Doch der absolute Rückgang in Punkten ist absolut irrelevant, da der Verlust von 416 Punkten am Dienstag mit -3,3% kleiner war, als ein Rückgang von 307 Punkten am 24. März 2003 (-3.6%). Vor 1955 wäre so ein Absturz überhaupt nicht möglich gewesen, da der Dow Jones damals unter 400 Punkten notierte. Trotzdem gab es natürlich Tage mit starken Verlusten, prozentual gesehen. Aber “steilster Absturz nach dem 17. September 2001″ hört sich natürlich schlimmer an, als “steilster Absturz nach dem 24. März 2003″.
Die Tage mit Verlusten von über -3% habe ich einmal in folgender Tabelle zusammengefasst. Wer wissen will, was bisher nach solchen Tagen kurz-, mittel-, und langfristig passierte, der sollte einen Blick in den Wide-Screen-Chart (12000×600 Punkte) werfen, in denen die in der Tabelle angeführten Tage rot dargestellt sind. Bestimmte Bereiche oder analoge Abbildungen für andere Indizes kann ich auf Anforderung hier einstellen, wenn ich die Zeit dazu habe.
| Datum | abs. Verlust | rel. Verlust |
| 1928-12-06 | -10.9 | -3.7% |
| 1928-12-07 | -8.7 | -3.1% |
| 1929-02-07 | -11.4 | -3.6% |
| 1929-03-25 | -12.8 | -4.1% |
| 1929-05-22 | -13.3 | -4.2% |
| 1929-05-27 | -12.2 | -4.0% |
| 1929-08-09 | -14.1 | -4.0% |
| 1929-09-27 | -11.1 | -3.1% |
| 1929-10-03 | -14.6 | -4.2% |
| 1929-10-16 | -11.1 | -3.2% |
| 1929-10-21 | -12.4 | -3.7% |
| 1929-10-23 | -20.7 | -6.3% |
| 1929-10-28 | -40.6 | -13.5% |
| 1929-10-29 | -30.6 | -11.7% |
| 1929-11-04 | -15.8 | -5.8% |
| 1929-11-06 | -25.6 | -9.9% |
| 1929-11-11 | -16.1 | -6.8% |
| 1929-11-12 | -10.6 | -4.8% |
| 1929-11-13 | -11.1 | -5.3% |
| 1929-11-26 | -8.1 | -3.3% |
| 1929-12-12 | -15.3 | -5.9% |
| 1929-12-20 | -9.5 | -4.0% |
| 1930-04-28 | -8.8 | -3.1% |
| 1930-06-09 | -13.2 | -5.0% |
| 1930-06-11 | -8.2 | -3.2% |
| 1930-06-16 | -19.6 | -7.9% |
| 1930-06-18 | -9.7 | -4.3% |
| 1930-06-20 | -7.1 | -3.1% |
| 1930-06-24 | -7.7 | -3.5% |
| 1930-07-21 | -11.3 | -4.7% |
| 1930-07-30 | -7.3 | -3.1% |
| 1930-08-08 | -9.9 | -4.2% |
| 1930-08-12 | -6.9 | -3.1% |
| 1930-10-06 | -11.4 | -5.3% |
| 1930-10-09 | -8.6 | -4.3% |
| 1930-10-17 | -9.2 | -4.7% |
| 1930-10-21 | -6.9 | -3.6% |
| 1930-11-05 | -5.6 | -3.0% |
| 1930-11-07 | -6.3 | -3.5% |
| 1930-12-15 | -5.3 | -3.2% |
| 1930-12-16 | -5.8 | -3.6% |
| 1930-12-22 | -6.6 | -3.9% |
| 1931-03-02 | -6.0 | -3.1% |
| 1931-04-27 | -6.0 | -3.8% |
| 1931-05-01 | -5.6 | -3.7% |
| 1931-05-18 | -5.0 | -3.4% |
| 1931-05-25 | -6.6 | -4.7% |
| 1931-06-01 | -5.7 | -4.4% |
| 1931-07-07 | -6.9 | -4.5% |
| 1931-07-13 | -4.5 | -3.1% |
| 1931-07-29 | -5.3 | -3.8% |
| 1931-09-03 | -4.2 | -3.0% |
| 1931-09-14 | -6.9 | -5.4% |
| 1931-09-18 | -6.7 | -5.5% |
| 1931-09-21 | -4.2 | -3.7% |
| 1931-09-24 | -8.2 | -7.1% |
| 1931-09-28 | -5.5 | -5.0% |
| 1931-09-29 | -4.6 | -4.4% |
| 1931-09-30 | -3.2 | -3.2% |
| 1931-10-05 | -10.4 | -10.7% |
| 1931-10-13 | -4.2 | -4.0% |
| 1931-10-22 | -3.4 | -3.1% |
| 1931-10-28 | -3.7 | -3.6% |
| 1931-11-13 | -4.6 | -4.1% |
| 1931-11-18 | -4.5 | -4.2% |
| 1931-11-20 | -3.3 | -3.2% |
| 1931-11-25 | -4.5 | -4.5% |
| 1931-12-02 | -3.3 | -3.6% |
| 1931-12-04 | -2.9 | -3.3% |
| 1931-12-08 | -3.6 | -4.0% |
| 1931-12-11 | -2.8 | -3.4% |
| 1931-12-14 | -2.4 | -3.0% |
| 1931-12-17 | -2.7 | -3.5% |
| 1931-12-21 | -2.6 | -3.2% |
| 1931-12-23 | -3.5 | -4.4% |
| 1932-01-04 | -6.3 | -8.1% |
| 1932-01-18 | -4.4 | -5.2% |
| 1932-01-22 | -4.6 | -5.5% |
| 1932-02-05 | -2.7 | -3.4% |
| 1932-02-17 | -3.5 | -4.1% |
| 1932-02-23 | -5.7 | -6.7% |
| 1932-03-11 | -2.6 | -3.1% |
| 1932-03-28 | -2.9 | -3.7% |
| 1932-03-31 | -3.9 | -5.0% |
| 1932-04-05 | -3.1 | -4.4% |
| 1932-04-08 | -3.3 | -5.0% |
| 1932-04-18 | -3.6 | -5.6% |
| 1932-04-22 | -3.1 | -5.0% |
| 1932-04-28 | -3.0 | -5.0% |
| 1932-04-29 | -2.3 | -4.0% |
| 1932-05-09 | -2.0 | -3.3% |
| 1932-05-12 | -2.2 | -3.8% |
| 1932-05-13 | -2.2 | -3.9% |
| 1932-05-24 | -2.1 | -4.0% |
| 1932-05-25 | -1.8 | -3.4% |
| 1932-05-27 | -2.5 | -5.0% |
| 1932-05-31 | -2.7 | -5.8% |
| 1932-06-07 | -1.9 | -3.8% |
| 1932-06-08 | -2.3 | -4.8% |
| 1932-06-17 | -2.8 | -5.5% |
| 1932-06-24 | -2.0 | -4.2% |
| 1932-06-27 | -1.9 | -4.3% |
| 1932-07-07 | -2.3 | -5.1% |
| 1932-07-18 | -1.4 | -3.1% |
| 1932-08-02 | -1.8 | -3.2% |
| 1932-08-12 | -5.8 | -8.4% |
| 1932-09-08 | -2.4 | -3.1% |
| 1932-09-12 | -3.9 | -5.1% |
| 1932-09-13 | -2.5 | -3.4% |
| 1932-09-14 | -4.0 | -5.7% |
| 1932-09-19 | -2.0 | -3.0% |
| 1932-09-22 | -2.5 | -3.3% |
| 1932-09-26 | -2.9 | -3.9% |
| 1932-10-05 | -5.1 | -7.2% |
| 1932-10-07 | -3.6 | -5.4% |
| 1932-10-10 | -4.2 | -6.7% |
| 1932-10-13 | -1.9 | -3.1% |
| 1932-10-21 | -3.4 | -5.3% |
| 1932-11-09 | -2.9 | -4.5% |
| 1932-11-14 | -2.5 | -3.6% |
| 1932-11-16 | -2.0 | -3.1% |
| 1932-11-23 | -3.7 | -5.8% |
| 1932-11-30 | -2.4 | -4.1% |
| 1932-12-02 | -2.1 | -3.6% |
| 1932-12-22 | -2.4 | -4.1% |
| 1933-02-14 | -2.5 | -4.3% |
| 1933-02-20 | -2.1 | -3.7% |
| 1933-02-23 | -2.1 | -3.8% |
| 1933-02-27 | -3.7 | -6.8% |
| 1933-03-17 | -2.2 | -3.5% |
| 1933-03-21 | -2.3 | -3.9% |
| 1933-04-21 | -2.5 | -3.4% |
| 1933-05-08 | -3.2 | -3.9% |
| 1933-06-15 | -5.2 | -5.5% |
| 1933-06-22 | -3.0 | -3.1% |
| 1933-07-19 | -5.1 | -4.7% |
| 1933-07-20 | -7.3 | -7.1% |
| 1933-07-21 | -7.6 | -7.8% |
| 1933-07-31 | -3.8 | -4.0% |
| 1933-09-05 | -3.4 | -3.3% |
| 1933-09-21 | -6.4 | -6.2% |
| 1933-09-27 | -4.2 | -4.3% |
| 1933-10-13 | -3.5 | -3.5% |
| 1933-10-16 | -4.9 | -5.1% |
| 1933-10-18 | -3.7 | -4.0% |
| 1933-10-19 | -4.6 | -5.1% |
| 1933-10-30 | -4.8 | -5.1% |
| 1933-11-27 | -3.8 | -3.8% |
| 1934-04-30 | -3.2 | -3.0% |
| 1934-05-07 | -3.8 | -3.8% |
| 1934-07-26 | -6.1 | -6.6% |
| 1936-03-09 | -5.2 | -3.3% |
| 1936-04-20 | -5.4 | -3.4% |
| 1937-04-26 | -6.6 | -3.7% |
| 1937-06-14 | -5.3 | -3.1% |
| 1937-09-07 | -7.8 | -4.5% |
| 1937-09-10 | -8.4 | -5.0% |
| 1937-09-20 | -6.6 | -4.1% |
| 1937-09-24 | -6.6 | -4.3% |
| 1937-10-05 | -8.1 | -5.3% |
| 1937-10-11 | -5.2 | -3.6% |
| 1937-10-18 | -9.7 | -7.2% |
| 1937-11-03 | -5.8 | -4.3% |
| 1937-11-08 | -4.9 | -3.8% |
| 1937-11-19 | -7.4 | -5.9% |
| 1937-11-22 | -3.9 | -3.3% |
| 1937-12-13 | -3.9 | -3.1% |
| 1937-12-27 | -3.9 | -3.1% |
| 1937-12-28 | -4.5 | -3.7% |
| 1938-01-26 | -5.1 | -4.0% |
| 1938-02-03 | -4.6 | -3.7% |
| 1938-03-16 | -4.4 | -3.4% |
| 1938-03-25 | -6.1 | -5.3% |
| 1938-03-29 | -5.3 | -5.0% |
| 1938-08-29 | -5.9 | -4.1% |
| 1938-09-13 | -6.0 | -4.3% |
| 1938-09-26 | -4.2 | -3.1% |
| 1939-01-23 | -7.8 | -5.2% |
| 1939-01-26 | -4.3 | -3.1% |
| 1939-03-31 | -4.8 | -3.5% |
| 1939-04-06 | -4.0 | -3.1% |
| 1939-09-18 | -6.2 | -4.1% |
| 1940-05-13 | -7.1 | -4.9% |
| 1940-05-14 | -9.4 | -6.8% |
| 1940-05-17 | -6.2 | -4.8% |
| 1940-05-21 | -8.3 | -6.8% |
| 1940-06-10 | -3.8 | -3.3% |
| 1940-08-13 | -4.3 | -3.4% |
| 1943-04-09 | -4.3 | -3.2% |
| 1946-02-25 | -8.4 | -4.3% |
| 1946-08-27 | -6.0 | -3.0% |
| 1946-09-03 | -10.5 | -5.6% |
| 1946-09-09 | -7.9 | -4.4% |
| 1946-11-06 | -5.5 | -3.2% |
| 1947-04-14 | -6.7 | -3.9% |
| 1948-11-03 | -7.3 | -3.8% |
| 1948-11-05 | -6.2 | -3.3% |
| 1950-06-26 | -10.4 | -4.7% |
| 1950-06-29 | -8.0 | -3.7% |
| 1955-09-26 | -31.9 | -6.5% |
| 1962-05-28 | -35.0 | -5.7% |
| 1970-05-25 | -20.8 | -3.1% |
| 1973-11-19 | -28.7 | -3.2% |
| 1973-11-26 | -29.0 | -3.4% |
| 1974-01-09 | -27.0 | -3.1% |
| 1974-11-18 | -22.7 | -3.5% |
| 1982-10-25 | -36.3 | -3.5% |
| 1986-07-07 | -62.0 | -3.3% |
| 1986-09-11 | -86.6 | -4.6% |
| 1987-10-06 | -91.5 | -3.5% |
| 1987-10-14 | -95.5 | -3.8% |
| 1987-10-16 | -108.4 | -4.6% |
| 1987-10-19 | -508.0 | -22.6% |
| 1987-10-22 | -77.4 | -3.8% |
| 1987-10-26 | -156.8 | -8.0% |
| 1987-11-09 | -58.8 | -3.0% |
| 1987-11-30 | -76.9 | -4.0% |
| 1987-12-03 | -72.4 | -3.9% |
| 1988-01-08 | -140.6 | -6.9% |
| 1988-04-14 | -101.5 | -4.8% |
| 1989-10-13 | -190.6 | -6.9% |
| 1990-08-06 | -93.3 | -3.3% |
| 1990-10-09 | -78.2 | -3.1% |
| 1991-11-15 | -120.3 | -3.9% |
| 1996-03-08 | -171.2 | -3.0% |
| 1997-08-15 | -247.4 | -3.1% |
| 1997-10-27 | -554.3 | -7.2% |
| 1998-08-04 | -299.4 | -3.4% |
| 1998-08-27 | -357.4 | -4.2% |
| 1998-08-31 | -512.6 | -6.4% |
| 1998-09-10 | -249.5 | -3.2% |
| 2000-01-04 | -359.6 | -3.2% |
| 2000-03-07 | -374.5 | -3.7% |
| 2000-04-14 | -617.8 | -5.7% |
| 2000-10-12 | -379.2 | -3.6% |
| 2001-03-12 | -436.4 | -4.1% |
| 2001-03-14 | -317.3 | -3.1% |
| 2001-09-17 | -684.8 | -7.1% |
| 2001-09-20 | -382.9 | -4.4% |
| 2002-07-10 | -282.6 | -3.1% |
| 2002-07-19 | -390.2 | -4.6% |
| 2002-08-05 | -269.5 | -3.2% |
| 2002-09-03 | -355.5 | -4.1% |
| 2002-09-27 | -295.7 | -3.7% |
| 2003-03-24 | -307.3 | -3.6% |
| 2007-02-27 | -416.0 | -3.3% |
[...] Dass der Preisrückgang substanziell war, steht außer Frage, wird aber eben nicht korrekt vermittelt. Trader’s Quest präsentiert dazu eine Liste mit den größeren prozentuellen Tagesverlusten des Dow Jones. [...]